The goal of an expansionary monetary policy is to increase economic output and increase employment. So, if the unemployment rate is higher than usual, the economy is thought to be running below its potential and policy makers will try to stimulate it. A stimulatory monetary policy entails lower interest rates and reduces demand for the Dollar money flows out of a low yielding currency. To learn exactly how this works, see our article on how interest rates effect forex.
The chart below shows how volatile forex can be after an NFP release. The expected NFP results for March 8, were k job additions , the actual result disappointed with only 20k jobs being added.
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Forex traders must be wary of data releases like the NFP. Traders could get stopped-out due to the sudden increase in volatility. When volatility increases, spreads do too, and increased spreads can lead to margin calls. Other currency pairs also display an increase in volatility when the NFP releases, and traders must be aware of this as well, because they may get stopped out.
As you can see, the increase in volatility could stop a trader out of their position even though they are not trading a currency pair linked to the US Dollar. Due to the volatile nature of the NFP release, we recommend using a pull-back strategy rather than a breakout strategy. Using a pullback strategy, traders should wait for the currency pair to retrace before entering a trade. If you want to know more about trading the news and data releases, see our trading the news beginner guide. We also suggest reading our traits of successful traders guide to avoid the number one mistake traders make when trading forex.
We also recommend finding out more about the role of central banks in the forex market, and what central bank interventions involve. Use the DailyFX economic calendar to keep an eye on all the important economic data releases, including central bank speeches and interest rate data.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Forex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.
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